DakotaPolitics.com Blogs and Opinion
date syndicated: Sep 3 2008 12:37PM
A poll conducted from August 23-27 by DFM Research of 400 likely voters shows Obama leading 43% to 40% with 5% Other and 12% Unsure (margin of error +/- 5%). This is the first ND Poll since February showing Obama Leading in North Dakota. (Real Clear Politics has McCain up +3, +1, and +6 in the last 3 polls and Obama up +4 in February) I spoke with Dean Mitchell of DFM Research Today and he stated that the poll was conducted during the DNC Convention with polling ending the day prior to Obama's speech. The full results are listed below and it includes some polling on the Governors Race and the Insurance Commissioner Race. Hoeven leads Mathern by 44 Percentage Points (63 to 19) and Kelly Schmidt leads Mitch Vance in the treasurer race by 22% to 17% with 59% Unsure.
POLL RESULTS AND METHODOLOGY Interviews: 400 Respondents by Telephone * Conducted by Performance Centers Inc of
Margin of Error: + 5 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence level
Interview Dates: August 23-27
Sample: Stratified Random Sample. Random digit numbers provided by Survey Sample International (SSI) of Fairfield, CT. SSI provided DFM Research with 6,000 residential random phone numbers from a pool of listed and unlisted numbers comprising 98.68% of total exchanges in the boundary area, which then were stratified into five distinct North Dakota geographical regions. Each number had a non-zero chance of being selected.
Survey Sponsor: North Dakota United Transportation
Intro: Standard opening from Performance Centers Inc. The initial screen was to ask for the person with the most recent birthday who was over the age of eighteen.
Q1: In the upcoming election this November, how likely would you say you are to vote? (READ LIST)
Very likely …………..…………..… 89%
Fairly likely ……………………… 11
Somewhat likely ……………..……. (TERMINATE CALL)
Not that likely……………………… (TERMINATE CALL)
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… (TERMINATE CALL)
(VOL) Refused ………………….… (TERMINATE CALL)
Q2: Generally speaking, do you think things in the nation are moving in the right direction or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?
Right Direction ……………………. 22%
Wrong Track ……………………... 64
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 14
Q3: And generally speaking, do you think things in
Right Direction ……………………. 66%
Wrong Track ……………………... 22
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 12
I’m now going to read you some names of some public figures and organizations, for each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them, and if you never heard of them before, just let me know. (ROTATE NAMES).
Favorable Unfavorable Neutral/Unsure Never Heard Of
Q4: Barack Obama 53% 34 12 1
Q4a: John McCain 45 40 14 1
Q4d: Kelly Schmidt 9 8 16 68
Q4f: John Hoeven 68 13 17 3
Q5: Turning to the upcoming election. If the election for President was held today, for whom would you vote? Barack Obama the Democrat, John McCain the Republican? (ROTATE NAMES)
Barack Obama …………………..... 43%
John McCain …..…………….......... 40
(VOL) Other candidate ……….…... 5
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 12
Q6: In the race for U.S. Congress, if the election was held today, for whom would you vote? Earl Pomeroy the Democrat or Duane Sand the Republican? (ROTATE NAMES)
Earl Pomeroy …………....……..…. 53%
Duane Sand …....…….…….........… 27
(VOL) Other candidate ……...……. 2
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 18
Q7: In the race for North Dakota Governor, if the election was held today, for whom would you vote? Tim Mathern the Democrat or John Hoeven the Republican? (ROTATE NAMES)
Tim Mathern ……………....…..…. 19%
John Hoeven …....…….…….......… 63
(VOL) Other candidate ……...……. 3
(VOL) Unsure …………...………… 15
Q9: In the race for North Dakota State Treasurer, if the election was held today, for whom would you vote, Mitch Vance the Democrat or Kelly Schmidt the Republican? (ROTATE NAMES)
Mitch Vance ………………………….... 17%
Kelly Schmidt …..………………........… 22
(VOL) Other candidate ……...…...……. 2
(VOL) Unsure …………...…...………… 59
** (VOL) indicates a volunteered response made by the survey respondent.
The Particulars
The poll results presented in this report are based on a stratified random sample of 400 North Dakotan voters that were screened to establish their likelihood of voting in 2008 election. The sample was stratified by region to ensure a representative sample of the
23% - Eastern Urban Areas ( 18% - Western Urban Areas (Bismarck, 22% -
23% -
14% -
The percentages allocated for each regions was based on voter turnout in the 53 counties from the 2004 general election coupled with the most recent state population estimates provided by the Census Bureau.
After the numbers were stratified into the appropriate region, telephone numbers were then selected by random using a skip pattern to guarantee that the interviews were distributed throughout the region. Each number in the stratified sample had the same non-zero chance of being selected for an interview.
Telephone interviews were conducted by trained staff of Performance Center Inc (PCI), of
At the end of each day, Performance Centers Inc would provide DFM Research a list of all completed interviews in an excel format. Data was then analyzed using an excel program, and final results were weighted based on gender, education and age to conform with the expected 2008 North Dakota voting population based on U.S. Census Bureau demographic data and the March 2006 Current Population Reports on the characteristics of 2004 voters. Below are the final demographic percentage used to weight the survey responses.
Gender Age Education
Male 48% 18-34 25% HS or < 36%
Female 52% 35-44 21% Some College 37%
45-54 19% BA Degree 20%
55+ 35% Grad Degree 7%
The final results presented are subject to sampling error, which is the difference between results obtained from the survey and those if everyone in the target population – North Dakota likely voters – were interviewed. The sampling error – margin of error – for this poll is + 5 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence level; meaning that in 19 out of 20 times, the results presented would be within the confidence interval. If final results of a question resulted in a tabulated answer of 50 percent, the confidence interval would between 45 to 55 percent. It should be noted that the margin of error decreases as the final results move closer to zero and 100 percent. For example, if the final results in this poll resulted in a tally of 20 percent, the margin of error would be + 4 percentage points.
Final analysis of the data, as well as project management, was completed by Dean Mitchell of DFM Research in
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